http://www.theprovince.com/business/Number+young+people+leaving+soars+likely+reasons+include/7096450/story.html
Young people fleeing B.C. in big numbers: Are bad economy and pricey housing to blame?
BY SAM COOPER, THE PROVINCE AUGUST 16, 2012
The latest numbers from B.C. Stats show that from January to March this year, 2,554 people left B.C. for other provinces. That’s an alarming jump that continues a negative trend started in 2011, when B.C. logged a net migration loss interprovincially of 1,920.
Photograph by: Tyrel Featherstone , Postmedia files
Young people are leaving B.C. for other provinces at the fastest rate in years, raising concerns about a sputtering economy and unaffordable housing.
The latest numbers from B.C. Stats show that from January to March this year, 2,554 people left B.C. for other provinces. That’s an alarming jump that continues a negative trend started in 2011, when B.C. logged a net migration loss interprovincially of 1,920.
In an interview Wednesday Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central Credit Union 1, said B.C.’s negative migration “seems to be accelerating.”
Pastrick said those leaving B.C tend to be young people looking for better employment opportunities, but there also could be a “push and pull” factor of younger families seeking both better jobs and more affordable homes in other provinces.
Pastrick said he suspects the big early 2012 exodus from B.C. could be due to rapid job growth in Alberta.
The latest stats show Alberta has 3.2 per cent job growth up to July in 2012, he said, compared to just 1.9 per cent in B.C. And while B.C. lost 2,554 interprovincially, Alberta gained 13,396.
B.C. NDP leader Adrian Dix said interprovincial migration is “complicated” and B.C.’s negative trend covers a short period, so he doesn’t want to jump to conclusions.
But housing affordability and B.C.’s habit of exporting raw resources without developing manufacturing jobs are likely culprits, he said.
“If this trend continues in the coming quarters it is not good for the economy or the government’s record,” Dix said. “We have to focus on making things and manufacturing in a consistent way, and training our [workforce].”
B.C. Finance Minister Kevin Falcon was not available for an interview for this story.
While Metro Vancouver home prices continue to hover high above the rest of the country’s, the latest data show home sales in the Vancouver area have been sliding for months and will likely continue to fall, Pastrick said.
Meanwhile, in the absence of exit interviews for interprovincial migrants, there is no way of knowing certainly whether high housing prices are driving young people from B.C., Urban Futures demographer Ryan Berlin says.
In a demographic report completed before late 2011 and early 2012 migration stats were available, Urban Futures said the first three-quarters of 2011 represented the longest consecutive outflow seen in B.C since 2003. Urban Futures traced the beginning of the trend to a slowdown in B.C.’s economic and migration growth starting in 2010.
The report said 2011’s negative migration figures suggest a weak economy in B.C. relative to other provinces, with a continuation of “below-average economic growth in B.C.” on the horizon.
The negative trend continued in the fourth quarter of 2011 with 353 leaving B.C., followed by a spike of 2,554 in 2012’s first quarter.
While Alberta and B.C. traditionally swap jobseekers back and forth, a surprising number of British Columbians left for Ontario and Quebec in 2011, Urban Futures said.